2024 Study: ‘Brain Drain’? The States With the Largest Net Gains and Losses of College-Educated Americans
Posted in: I'm Moving, College MovesKey Findings
- College-educated Americans were more likely to move (9%) than those without a college degree (7%), according to 2023 Census Bureau data
- Americans with a college degree were 73% more likely to cite “a new job” as their reason for moving last year
- Two of the top three destination states for Americans with college degrees — Washington (+169%) and Nevada (+111%) — don’t have state income taxes
- New York state (-56%) had a higher net “brain drain” than Alabama (-45%)
- Four of the top six metros college-educated Americans were most likely to leave are in California
In 2019, a U.S. Congress report looked into “brain drain,” a phenomenon they defined as when “someone in the top third of the national education distribution (resides) in a state other than her birth state between the ages of 31 and 40.”
One of its core findings was that states in the Rust Belt and the Southeast of the U.S. have been losing highly educated Americans for decades, and losing them mostly to states on the West Coast.
Last year however, an analysis by the New York Times found that more recently, coastal cities such as San Francisco and New York City were losing high rates of college-educated people due to the high cost of living. They reported an influx of college-educated Americans into cities in Georgia and North Carolina — the very states found to be severely impacted by brain drain just a few years prior.
So which is it? Are young, educated people opting for coastal areas over the Southeast and Midwest? Or are they moving away from the coasts, looking for a more affordable living?
In this 2024 report, we try to make sense of these seemingly oppositional reports and shed light on the states and cities losing and gaining the most highly educated Americans.
Low Taxes, High Gains: Two States with No Income Tax Among Top Destinations for Educated Americans in 2023
Reports that college graduates are leaving the coasts may still be true for New York and California, but they certainly don’t fully account for the coast along the Pacific Northwest.
Top State Winners
According to the latest Current Population Survey, Washington state had three times as many (+169%) college graduates move in compared to leave in 2023; this is the highest net ratio of all states.
Why Washington? A leading educated guess is due to taxes.
A recent estimate places earnings of Americans with a college degree at about 69% higher than the national average, and at over twice as high as those who only finished high school. This might explain why many are flocking to a state that doesn’t have an income tax. (Washington’s biggest city, Seattle, also remains a top location for tech talent.)
“The state that lost the most college-educated residents in 2023 was South Dakota, which saw 72% more people with a college degree leave the state versus move in.”
Other states on the net-gain list that saw twice as many college-educated Americans move there during 2023 were South Carolina (+137%), Nevada (+111%), and Wisconsin (+110%).
It’s worth noting that Nevada is another state where no income tax is levied, a state that shares a border with California, a state where taxes are among the highest in the nation.
The South and New England: The States That Lost the Most College-Educated Residents in 2023
States in the Rust Belt seem to have shaken off the issue of losing their highly educated population in 2023 (roughly defined as center-located Midwestern and Eastern states), but the trend in the Southeast persisted last year.
The state that lost the most college-educated residents in 2023 was South Dakota, which saw 72% more people with a college degree leave the state versus move in.
Meanwhile, many states in the Southeast continue to struggle with the so-called brain drain, which is consistent with the 2019 congressional report. Mississippi (-67%), Louisiana (-62%), Oklahoma (-62%) and Alabama (-45%) all saw significantly more college-educated residents leave rather than move in last year.
Interestingly, the Northeastern U.S. appeared to be another brain drain cluster last year.
New York (-56%) had the sixth-greatest net loss of college-educated residents in the country last year, while every single New England state (except for Rhode Island) lost more residents with college degrees than they gained in 2023, according to the U.S. Census.
Taxes might play a role, as the high cost of living didn’t seem to deter moves to blue states in the Pacific Northwest, yet a blue state like New York (which is among the most expensive to live in) saw big net losses in talent last year.
To see how all the states compare among the number of college-educated residents they attracted and lost in 2023, check out our interactive map below.
Big Cities Lose, Florida Metros Gain: The Top Cities and Metropolitan Area for College-Educated Americans in 2023
A big pattern we’ve found in our migration studies of Millennials and Gen Z was also present in the moves of college-educated Americans: metros in Florida keep topping the list!
Top City/Metro Winners
The Sarasota-Bradenton, FL metro led the pack in 2023, with 135% more people with a college degree moving there last year compared to the total number of college-educated people leaving.
Metro areas around Jacksonville, FL (+81%) and Tampa, FL (+56%) were also top 10 metro areas for 2023. (Interestingly, while many areas in Florida are attracting Americans with college degrees, Orlando, FL metro areas lost about -20% more college-educated people than it gained last year.)
“…Washington state had three times as many (+169%) college graduates move in compared to leave in 2023; this is the highest net ratio of all states.”
Consistent with state-level findings, the Las Vegas, NV metro (+71%) gained a significant number of residents with college degrees. Similarly, two metros in South Carolina, Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC (+48%) and Charleston-North Charleston, SC (+47%), also rose in college-educated representation.
And while Tennessee may be losing more highly educated Americans than it’s gaining, that isn’t true of the Nashville, TN metro area; almost twice as many (+98%) college degree holders moved into this metro than left it last year. (It’s worth noting that Tennessee also doesn’t have a state income tax.)
| Metro | % Net Gain | — | Metro | % Net Loss |
| North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 135% | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | -51% | |
| Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN | 98% | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | -40% | |
| Jacksonville, FL | 81% | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | -48% | |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 71% | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | -32% | |
| Austin-Round Rock, TX | 70% | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | -32% | |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 61% | San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA | -25% | |
| Ann Arbor, MI | 56% | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | -20% | |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 56% | Columbus, OH | -19% | |
| Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC | 48% | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | -19% | |
| Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 47% | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | -18% |
Top Metro Losers
While Florida dominated the top destinations list, California had the most metros on the most-moved-out list.
Four of the top six metropolitan areas with the largest net losses in number of college-educated residents were metros in California: Oxnard, CA (-51%), San Jose, CA (-48%), Los Angeles, CA (-32%), and San Francisco, CA (-25%).
What’s the reason behind the California exodus?
Without being able to declare any single correlation, one can still point to its rising cost of living, a largely unchecked housing crisis, and a documented outflow of tech workers as culprits for why California is losing educated residents at an alarming rate. A similar concern can be said about the New York, NY metro, which had the second greatest (-49%) net loss of all metros when it comes to in- and out-moves by college-educated Americans.
Explore the moving patterns of highly educated Americans for all other metro areas in our interactive map below.
New Jobs and Relationships: The Reasons Behind Moves of College-Educated Americans
According to the Census Bureau figures on moves in 2023, college-educated Americans were more likely to move (9%) than their counterparts without a college degree (7%).
Looking at their reasons for moving, the one reason that stands out is work. Americans with a college degree who moved last year were 73% more likely to report doing so for “a new job or job transfer” than their non-college-educated counterparts.
Additionally, they were 24% more likely to cite moving due to a “relationship with umarried partner,” and 15% more likely to cite moving due to wanting “to own a home, not rent.”
The Census data suggests that college-educated Americans weren’t reporting moving for cost-cutting; college-educated Americans were 30% less likely to report moving for “cheaper housing” than those without a college degree.
Sources and Methodology
All data on moves, their origins, destinations and reasons behind them were taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and its Annual Social and Economic Supplements, as available via IPUMS. All estimates and percentages are based on moves within the United States.
“College-educated American” was defined as, “someone who has completed at least an undergraduate/Bachelor’s degree, including a master’s degree, doctorate, or similarly advanced degree.”)
Net gain and loss for states and metropolitan areas were calculated as follows:
-
number of people with a college degree moving into the state or city, to
-
the number of people with a college degree moving out of the state or city,
-
expressed as a percentage (%)
