2023 Study: Majority of Renters Priced Out of Homeownership in 78% of All US Metros

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Key Findings

  • 63% of renters across the biggest U.S. metropolitan areas are priced out of home ownership (up from 61% last year)
  • The majority of renters can’t afford to own a home where they live in 205 out of 260 metros (78%)
  • At least 90% of renters are priced out of home ownership in 16 American metro areas, nine of which are in California
  • In two metropolitan areas, Prescott, AZ and San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA, less than 1% of renters would be able to afford buying and owning a median-priced home
  • Kalamazoo-Portage, MI, Jackson, MI, and Johnstown, PA are the only three metros where more than 80% of renters could afford to own a home

In 2022, a study by Porch, a nationwide home-service company, found 61% of renters in the U.S. were priced out of homeownership, meaning they were not able to afford to buy and own a home in the same city where they rented. 

In 2023, applying that study’s same methodology to the most recent home-owner data resulted in an estimate of 63%. In other words, today, nearly two-thirds of renters can’t afford to buy a home in the metro where they live.

To gain a better understanding of this huge number, we examined housing affordability by comparing renter incomes to home prices using the most recently available data for 260 metropolitan areas in the United States.


Home Prices Have Dropped, Why Aren’t Homes More Affordable?

home ownership study porch hireahelperEven though home prices have been falling for the better part of last year and then continued their decline in 2023, housing affordability hasn’t improved. In fact, things have gotten worse for prospective homeowners over the last year. 

At the end of last year, the National Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index reached its lowest point since 1965. It hasn’t been this hard for a family with an average income to qualify for a mortgage loan on an average-priced home in over six decades.

Why hasn’t a drop in home prices led to greater affordability? 

For starters, mortgage interest rates are at 6.65% according to Freddie Mac — the highest they’ve been since the Great Recession. This means potential mortgage repayments for buyers would be a lot higher than they would have been even just a few years ago.

 

“It hasn’t been this hard for a family with an average income to qualify for a mortgage loan on an average-priced home in over six decades.”

 

Secondly, there aren’t enough affordable starter homes. In part, that’s because there are simply not enough homes for sale in general after a pandemic buying frenzy. On top of that, there is simply put, a lack of cheap new homes. Roughly 63% of all U.S. homes were selling for over $400,000 by the end of 2022.

Finally, there’s the pervasive issue of inflation and the increasing cost of goods, services, and rent, leaving less money in Americans’ pockets. Despite dropping to 6.5% in recent months, it’s still way higher than the pre-pandemic 1-2% rate.

Now that we know more about why housing is less and less affordable, let’s get into where all this leaves American renters wanting to buy a home in 2023.

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Further Out of Reach: The Majority of Renters Can’t Afford To Own a Home in 205 out of 260 Metros

To estimate the percent of renters priced out, we assumed a scenario where a first-time buyer put down 6% of the home value, obtained a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 6.65% interest rate (an average rate), and aimed to keep mortgage repayments to a maximum of 30% of the household income, as per the famous Housing and Urban Development guideline.

 

“…in two major U.S. metropolitan areas, the share of renters priced out of home ownership is a staggering 99%!”

 

With current income levels and home prices, this scenario is completely unattainable for the majority of renters in 205 out of 260 metropolitan areas in the United States. That’s in nearly eight out of the ten (78%) most populated areas in America where renters have no realistic chance at home ownership.

 

In the Porch study from 2022, there were 184 metros where home ownership was unaffordable for 50% or more renters living in them. 

This overall increase seems to suggest the affordability crisis isn’t just deepening in areas already struggling with affordable homes, but is actually expanding to more metropolitan areas across the country.

Mission Impossible: In Two Metros, Home Ownership Is Unachievable for 99% of Renters   

Last year’s study uncovered 13 major U.S. metro areas where at least 90% of renters wouldn’t have been able to afford home ownership based on their income. This year, there are 17 of them!

What’s different about this year’s findings, however, is that in two major U.S. metropolitan areas, the share of renters priced out of home ownership is a staggering 99%!

Those areas are San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA and Prescott, AZ, where the home prices are prohibitively high to be affordable for the absolute majority of people who rent in these areas. Homes in San Luis Obispo and the area being unaffordable is nothing new, but affordability dropping in Arizona and Prescott, AZ specifically is something that’s started happening recently, according to local reports.

 

Of the 17 places in the U.S. where the income of 90% of renters would prevent them from being able to afford a home, nine are in California with cities like Los Angeles (94.3%), Salinas, CA (92.9%) and San Diego (92.6%) all with an appearance on the list.

Hawaii and Colorado each have two metros on this list, but, rather surprisingly, so does Charleston-North Charleston, SC, where some 91.6% of renters are priced out of home ownership. Turns out, housing has been too expensive in the area for a while, but the local government does seem to be stepping in and building more affordable homes, according to reports.

The Modest Midwest: Two Michigan Metros Among Three Most Affordable Places for Renters

Like last year, Johnstown, PA leads the pack in terms of affordability of local housing for those on typical renter incomes. Nearly 90% of people who rent in the area earn enough to cope with the costs of home ownership if they were to buy a home in the area.

The only two other metropolitan areas where owning a home without repayments crosses the affordability threshold of 30% of the household income are in Michigan. Those places are Jackson, MI, (11.9%) and Kalamazoo-Portage, MI (13.3%).

Looking at the 10 most affordable areas for renters looking to jump onto a housing ladder without it breaking the bank, five are either in Michigan or Illinois, while a total of three exist in Pennsylvania.

See All the Data for Yourself

To see how affordable homeownership is for renters in your city or metro, check the table below. 


Methodology, Data Sources, Calculations and Assumptions Made

Income levels of renter households and their % of all households in each metropolitan area were taken from the 2022 release of the Annual Social Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey, as available via Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). Home prices were taken from Zillow.
% of renters “priced out” was calculated as the percentage of renters in each metropolitan area whose income wouldn’t be sufficient to keep potential mortgage repayments to 30% of gross monthly income (Source: United States Department of Housing and Urban Development). 
Mortgage repayments were estimated using the following assumptions:

Illustrations by Daniel Fishel

2021 Study: Renting Versus Buying, and How Both Are Impacting You

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Key Findings

  • The average rent across the United States is $1,050 a month
  • The average mortgage payment in the U.S. is $992/month 
  • At $2,600/month on average, Sunnyvale, CA has the highest rent in the country
  • Gadsen, AL has the lowest rent in the U.S. at $430/month on average
  • Mortgage repayments are highest in and around Washington, D.C., at more than $2,000/month on average
  • Property taxes, utilities, and insurance add an average of $563 to the cost of owning a home 
  • Homeowners tend to make 90% more than renters ($98,700 versus $51,700, on average)
  • Renters spend an average of 32% of their disposable income on housing, while homeowners spend an average of 20%
  • In 333 out of 335 cities studied, homeowners spend less of their income on accommodation than renters

 

It’s a question at the heart of many debates and countless articles: Is it better to buy (if you can afford it) or to rent (if you can’t)? Which is more financially beneficial? Which is actually more affordable, and why?

One way to think about this debate is to take the average home price in each state, then estimate your repayment based on some assumptions (e.g., 20% down payment, 3% interest over 30 years, etc.), then finally, compare that number to average rent prices.

But that comparison alone doesn’t tell us the true value of renting.

What does? We looked at 335 of the biggest cities and metropolitan areas in the United States and broke down how rent levels compare to mortgage rates, how they stack up against typical incomes in each of these areas, and more.

$400 in Alabama, $2,500 in California: How American Cities Compare on Rent

The average cost of rent across the country is $1,050 a month. Cities where rent is nearest the nationwide average are Modesto, CA ($1,047), Iowa City, IA ($1,057), and Houston, TX ($1,058).

(Note: Most of the housing data in this article come from the U.S. Census American Community Survey.) 

Among the 335 major metropolitan areas we profiled, where is rent cheapest? That would be Gadsden, AL, where typical rent was around $400 per month. Among areas with the lowest rent in the country are towns in Missouri and North Carolina

And then you have the other extreme. Places bemoaned for the high cost of living are mostly situated in California, with Sunnyvale, CA grabbing the top spot with an average of $2,600/month. San Jose sits closely behind, featuring rents around the $2,300/month mark.

City Avg. Rent City Avg. Rent
Gadsden, AL $400 Sunnyvale, CA $2,600
Johnstown, PA $430 San Jose, CA $2,400
Decatur, IL $495 Cambridge, MA $2,300
Rocky Mount, NC $500 San Francisco, CA $2,000
Joplin, MO $500 Hayward, CA $2,000
Hickory, NC $500 Napa, CA $1,900
Youngstown, OH $500 Huntington Beach, CA $1,900
Monroe, LA $500 Ventura, CA $1,800
Lima, OH $500 Pasadena, CA $1,800
Decatur, AL $500 Rancho Cucamonga, CA $1,800

Only one of the top 10 places with the highest rent in the country is not in California. Surprisingly enough, it’s not New York City, but rather a little college town in Massachusetts we call Cambridge. Rent in the city that’s home to Harvard and MIT is the third highest in the country, averaging $2,200 per month.

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$992 a Month: The Typical Mortgage Repayment in the United States

How much is a typical monthly mortgage repayment? Excluding utilities like electricity, water, heating, the national average of a U.S mortgage is around $992/month. 

But it’s not that simple of a figure. Needless to say, buying a home requires putting a substantial amount of money towards the down payment, and fulfilling a set of financial requirements more stringent than those usually applied to prospective renters.

 

“Only one of the top 10 places with the highest rent in the country is not in California.”

 

Whether due to these factors, declining mortgage interest rates, or even the impact of COVID on the real estate market, mortgage repayments tend to come in lower than rents.

Being somewhat proportional to the home values, mortgage repayments are usually highest in cities, where homes cost more. However, since we decided to look at actual mortgage payments rather than estimating these figures from home prices alone, our results look somewhat different than you might expect.

The two cities with the highest mortgage repayments are in or near the capital of the U.S.: Alexandria, VA ($2,367) and Washington, D.C. ($2,077).

The rest of the top 10 is mostly made up of cities in the San Francisco Bay Area, with exceptions being Seattle, WA, Stamford, CT, and another satellite location Washington, D.C., Arlington, VA, where a typical mortgage repayment is $1,863.

City Avg. Mortgage Repayment City Avg. Mortgage Repayment
Flint, MI $223 Alexandria, VA $2,367
Detroit, MI $283 Washington, D.C. $2,077
Johnstown, PA $369 San Jose, CA $2,064
Charleston, WV $396 Seattle, WA $2,035
Brownsville, TX $398 Sunnyvale, CA $2,024
Homosassa Springs, FL $413 San Francisco, CA $1,985
Gadsden, AL $420 Stamford, CT $1,978
Edinburg, TX $431 Hayward, CA $1,971
Youngstown, OH $436 Arlington, VA $1,863
Bangor, ME $453 Oakland, CA $1,844

Cities where home prices and mortgage payments are lowest are mostly situated in the Midwest or the South of the country, including cities like Flint and Detroit, both in Michigan, and Brownsville and Edinburg, both in Texas. 

Rent or Buy: How Rent and Mortgage Payments in Each City Compare

Now that we’ve established how much renters and homeowners pay in different parts of the country, let’s look at how rent and mortgage payments compare in each city. Where do renters outspend homeowners and which cities are typical mortgage payments higher than rents?

Based on our analysis, typical rent is higher than a typical mortgage payment in more than half of the cities we looked at (56%, or 187 out of 335 cities analyzed), with the average rent being about 6% higher than the average mortgage payment.  

Compared to homeowners, renters pay the most in cities in Michigan and Florida. In Flint and Detroit, renters pay more than twice as much in rent as typical homeowners pay in their mortgage payments.

Rent in cities like Homosassa Springs, FL and Sarasota, FL tends to be about 1.6 times higher than a typical mortgage payment in the same city.

City Avg. Rent Avg. Mortgage Payment % difference
Flint, MI $535 $223 +140%
Detroit, MI $650 $283 +130%
Flagstaff, AZ $1,100 $620 +77%
Homosassa Springs, FL $700 $413 +69%
Allentown, PA $930 $567 +64%
Sterling Heights, MI $1,100 $677 +163%
Sarasota, FL $1,200 $744 +61%
Bangor, ME $730 $453 +61%
Punta Gorda, FL $900 $575 +57%
Cape Coral, FL $1,100 $720 +53%

Conversely, here are the cities, where payments on mortgages are higher than rents. Top among them is Stamford, CT, where homeowners pay almost a third (30%) more than renters!

In cities like Chicago, IL and Little Rock, AR rent is around 20% lower than a typical monthly payment on a mortgage. Two of the cities where homeowners pay more than renters are in the political capital of the U.S.: Washington, D.C. and Alexandria, VA.

City Avg. Rent Avg. Mortgage Payment % difference
Stamford, CT $1,400 $1,978 -29%
Alexandria, VA $1,800 $2,367 -24%
Sioux Falls, SD $760 $988 -23%
Auburn, AL $670 $851 -21%
Chicago, IL $1,000 $1,263 -21%
Little Rock, AR $700 $870 -20%
Fayetteville, AR $700 $867 -19%
Newark, NJ $1,000 $1,231 -19%
Yuba City, CA $880 $1,080 -19%
Washington, DC $1,700 $2,077 -18%

 


Wondering what the average rent is like where you live? Want to find a typical mortgage repayment in a city you’re interested in? 

See the full results of our study, check the interactive table below, where you can see how much people in the 335 cities we profiled pay in rent, mortgage payment, and how the two compare.


More Than Just a Mortgage: The True Cost of Home Ownership

So, which is ultimately cheaper: renting or owning a home?

If you were to take mortgage repayments as we listed above and simply compared that to rental prices, you’d notice that a lot of the time, they’re not super different. On average, across the 335 cities we profiled, rents are only 6% higher than mortgage repayments. And in almost half the cities (44%), rents are lower than typical mortgage repayments.

 

“Homeowners make about twice as much as renters, roughly $98,700 a year before taxes, as compared to an average income of $51,700 a year before taxes for renters.”

 

However, as most homeowners might tell you, your mortgage might be the biggest cost… but it is only one part of all the expenses that go towards owning and maintaining a home. And they would be 100% right.

According to the figures from the U.S. government census’ American Community Survey, insurance, real estate tax, and utilities contribute an average of $563 to living costs every month. With all this considered, a truer average cost of owning a home in the U.S. is around $1,556 a month.

You can argue that renters pay utilities out of pocket too. But even if we add those up, the average amount renters pay every month rises by $185 to $1,143 a month, which is still some 26% lower than homeowners fork out each month.

A Tale of Two Incomes: Honestly Measuring Housing Affordability in the U.S.

renting vs buyingLooking at the figures so far, owning a home does appear to be more expensive than renting, and not just in up-front investment, but on an ongoing basis, too. 

With the average utility bill, taxes, and other typical costs included, the average cost of homeowning in the U.S. is about $1,556 a month, while renting is $1,143 a month.

True as that may be in nominal terms, there’s one critical aspect to consider in deciding which is more affordable: household income

Even without looking at the data, you can easily imagine that the income of renter households is likely lower than those of homeowners. Renters tend to be younger, earlier in their careers, more likely to be single, etc. 

But the real kicker is just how much lower the income of those who rent tends to be. Homeowners make about twice as much as renters, roughly $98,700 a year before taxes, as compared to an average income of $51,700 a year before taxes for renters.

 

“…a typical homeowner spends only about 20% of their income on housing costs. For renters, that estimate is 32%!”

 

When you consider this fact, the $400 “premium” homeowners pay in housing costs doesn’t seem that large. In fact, when you account for taxes and average the income out by month, a typical homeowner spends only about 20% of their income on housing costs. For renters, that estimate is 32%!

That means renters spend over almost one-third of their estimated take-home pay to cover their accommodation costs, despite the oft-repeated personal finance mantra of spending “no more than 30%” on your total living costs.

It’s worth noting that among the 335 cities we profiled, only in two of them is renting more affordable than owning a home: Jersey City, NJ and San Francisco, CA. And in both cases, the difference between what renters spend is merely about 1% under what homeowners spend.

Most and Least Affordable Cities To Rent, Based on Average Income

Now, instead of looking at rent levels and mortgage repayments in isolation, let’s consider affordability as a relative measure. If we express housing costs of renters and homeowners as a percentage of their incomes, which cities would be most and least affordable?

The cities with the most affordable rent with regards to people’s income are in the Midwestern states of Missouri, Wisconsin, and Ohio, with the most affordable being Jefferson City, MO. In most of the top 10, the rent and housing costs are under the recommended 30% of disposable household income.

City Rent as % of income City Rent as % of income
Jefferson City, MO 26.7% Waterbury, CT 62.3%
Sheboygan, WI 27.5% Antioch, CA 59.8%
Eau Claire, WI 27.5% Moreno Valley, CA 57.8%
Wenatchee, WA 28.6% Iowa City, IA 56.5%
Houma, LA 29.0% Newark, NJ 55.6%
St. Joseph, MO 29.4% New Haven, CT 54.6%
Mansfield, OH 29.4% Flint, MI 54.2%
Sioux Falls, SD 29.5% Allentown, PA 53.6%
Lima, OH 29.9% Jackson, MI 53.1%
Wausau, WI 30.4% Bridgeport, CT 51.5%

And the least affordable cities for renters aren’t what you may think. Sure, some of them are in California and more specifically in the Bay Area. For example, costs for renters in Antioch, CA average almost 60% of their estimated disposable income. 

However, among cities with unaffordable rent levels are cities not exactly known for their affluence, like Newark, NJ and Flint, MI, where housing costs for renters are over 55% of their household income.

Most and Least Affordable Cities To Buy, Based on Average Income

Turning back to homeownership, it seems to be most affordable in cities like Huntsville, AL, Decatur, IL, and Houma, LA, where housing costs account for less than 20% of the household income.

Among the least affordable cities for homeownership are Bridgeport, CT, Paterson, NJ, Miami, FL, and Los Angeles, CA. Homeowners in these four cities spend more than 36% of their disposable income on their homes.

City Ownership as % of income City Ownership as % of income
Huntsville, AL 19.6% Bridgeport, CT 36.9%
Decatur, IL 19.7% Paterson, NJ 36.3%
Houma, LA 19.7% Miami, FL 36.2%
Decatur, AL 19.8% Los Angeles, CA 36.1%
Parkersburg, WV 19.8% Salinas, CA 35.3%
Odessa, TX 19.9% Newark, NJ 35.0%
Jefferson City, MO 20.1% Glendale, CA 34.7%
Michigan City, IN 20.3% Providence, RI 33.7%
Green Bay, WI 20.3% Pomona, CA 32.9%
Grand Rapids, MI 20.3% San Diego, CA 32.8%

Curiously enough, Newark, NJ is among the least affordable cities for homeowners as well as for renters. The percentage of their income homeowners in this city spend on their home is 6th highest in the country—35%. As the city with a reasonable commute to New York City is undergoing gentrification, the incomes of local residents might be struggling to keep up.


Housing affordability is a tricky concept. While mortgage repayments alone are lower than rents, it’s worth considering all the extra costs associated with homeownership that don’t factor into rentals. That said, if your income allows you to buy a home, chances are you’ll be spending less of it on your housing.

We’re not in the position to give financial advice, but if you’re considering moving to a place looking for greater affordability, you should consider spending less on your move before you even settle in. 

Sources and Methodology
Unless otherwise stated, all the data used in this study came from the American Community Survey, a government survey that reaches tens of thousands of households in America every year. The latest available data covers the year 2019, and the results were released in January 2021.
Household income was taken separately for owner-occupied and renter-occupied households. Housing costs on top of mortgage/rent include utilities such as heating, electricity, and water. For homeowners, they also include insurance, homeowner association fees, and real estate taxes.
To estimate monthly disposable household income, 70% of the nominal household income was taken using an estimate that an average American pays ≈30% of their income in taxes, then divided by 12.
Illustrations by Meredith Miotke
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