2021 Data Study: The Rise (and Rapid Fall) of Remote Workers

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Key Findings

  • As of August 2021, 20.5 million Americans are working from home due to COVID, fewer than half (42%) that were working remotely at the start of the declaration of the pandemic in 2020 (48.7 million)
  • On average, 13.4% of Americans worked remotely in August 2021, an increase from 13.2% the month previous (July 2021)
  • July 2021 into August 2021 is the first increase of remote workers in America since December 2020
  • There are 15 occupations where over 50% of employees still work remotely, including finance, insurance, and tech jobs
  • Rates of remote work are highest in coastal states, including Massachusetts (24%), Maryland (22%), and New Jersey (21%)
  • Across metropolitan areas, employees in San Francisco, CA (36%), San Jose, CA (34%), and Madison, WI (29%) were most likely to work remotely in August 2021

 

Working from home was something many Americans were forced into. This was rightly burdensome for somemostly those left to juggle childcare, work, and household activities from home. Yet for others, remote work became a positive opportunity.

Some of us got to do some gardening in the middle of the workday, or skip a crowded commute, or completely move out of an overpriced city to live somewhere quaint, green, and most importantly, affordable. 

But now, 18 months into the pandemic, how many Americans are still working remotely? In this data study we break down changes in remote work patterns in the U.S., look at how rates of teleworking vary by state, metropolitan area and occupation, then examine whether the rise of the delta variant may have had any impact on remote work.

Back to the Office? Remote Work in Steady Decline Since the Start of the Pandemic

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics began reporting on the number of people forced to telework due to COVID-19 in May of 2020, more than one in three (35%) adult Americans were working remotely.

remote workers 2021Heading into the end of 2021, remote work is in firm decline. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of August 2021, 13.4% of all employed Americans are most currently listed as working from home due to the pandemic. That’s almost three times fewer than the figure of remote workers from May 2020.

Worth noting, however, is that 13.4% is actually a higher share than the 13.2% that were working remotely in July 2021. This is the first time the number of remote workers has increased since the pandemic peaked in late 2020. Could this bump be related to the fact that the more aggressive delta variant of COVID has become a prevalent strain of the disease in the U.S. in July? Possibly, though we can’t say for a fact.

For many occupations and industries, the share of remote workers was never particularly high. Over 90% of healthcare professionals, construction laborers, truck drivers, agricultural workers haven’t at any point in the last 18 months worked remotely, and that makes sense, given the nature of their work.

For people in certain knowledge-based roles, the rates of remote work reached as high as 80% in May of last year. Yet even Americans in these occupations have been slowly returning to their usual workplaces.

 

“According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of August 2021, 13.4% of all employed Americans are most currently listed as working from home due to the pandemic. That’s almost three times fewer than the figure of remote workers from May 2020.”

 

Most statistically notable of those returning to the workplace are teachers and educators, 80% of whom delivered lessons and lectures from home after the pandemic shut down schools in May 2020, yet are now almost entirely back to work.

Meanwhile, the share of Americans working remotely in community and social services has decreased by a factor of three. Similarly, only half as many scientists and researchers carried out their work from home in August 2021. 

The same goes for general business services (think sales, marketing, and human resources), where only 37% of employees work remotely due to COVID in August 2021; that’s a far cry from the 67% that did so in May 2020.

Even in tech, whose workforce seemed to have culturally embraced teleworking the most successfully, the percentage of employees continuing to work from home has reduced by 65%.

Finance, Insurance, and Tech: 15 Occupations Continue to Embrace Remote Work in 2021

While the above statistics describe the behaviors of broad groups of professions, let’s delve into individual occupations to see where remote work is still remarkably popular.

 

“Most statistically notable of those returning to the workplace are teachers and educators, 80% of whom delivered lessons and lectures from home after the pandemic shut down schools in May 2020, yet are now almost entirely back to work.”

 

Figures from the Current Population Survey suggest there were 15 occupations where over 50% of employees worked from home in August 2021. The three professions with the highest share of remote workers are all in economics and finance. Economists (92%), budget specialists (77%), and actuaries (71%) were more likely to work remotely than any other occupation.

Further down the list appear people in science-related jobs. Among them are astronomers and physicists, aerospace engineers, procurement clerks, and environmental engineers, all of which had between 60% to 70% representation of those who still worked remotely by August of 2021.

Work-from-home rates for operations research analysts, mathematical scientists, financial analysts, and credit analysts were between 55% and 60%. Rounding out these 15 occupations are eligibility interviewers, engineering managers, and public relations specialists.

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Fear of Fourth Wave? Some Occupations See Increase in Remote Work for the First Time This Year

For all the gradual return to what used to be known as “normal life”, specifically due to the increase of the vaccinated population, future mutations of COVID remain a concern

The rate of COVID cases persisting upward and hospitals nearing capacity in some states are likely the reasons why many employers still haven’t made up their minds about their stances on remote work going forward. 

The employees who still have a choice

When left to their own devices, a segment of workers choose where they work for themselves. And many, it would appear, are still choosing remote work. 

According to the Current Population Survey, there were 117 occupations where the share of remote workers went up in August 2021, as compared to the month prior. Notably, this is the month when the delta variant of COVID-19 became the dominant strain in the U.S.

For occupations like marketing managers, it’s also the first such increase since January 2021, back when the pandemic reached its peak of 250,000 new cases a day.

Work-from-home Hubs: Places in America Where Remote Work Still Thrives

At a rate of 56%, Washington, D.C. had the highest percentage of employees working remotely in August 2021 versus any state in America. Given the very specific government workforce that inhabits this part of the country, this is not so surprising.

All other top remote states in the top 10, except Illinois, are all on the coast. In Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, and Virginia, that share reaches between 20% and 25% of all workers.

In three of the most populous states of AmericaCalifornia, New York, and Illinoisnearly one in five employees (~18%) worked from home in August 2021.

The cities with the highest remote workforce

Zooming in on citiesor metropolitan areas to be precisewe see that there are six metros where more than a quarter of workers carried on working remotely in the last month. Except for Madison, WI (29%) and Austin, TX (23%), all of these areas seem to echo the states with the highest remote workforce listed in the previous section.

Metro areas versus states

At the state level, the upswing in remote work between July and August looked marginal, whereas at the metro level—places where workforces tend to be more specializedwe see a different picture.

These metros aren’t all cities in the states we mentioned above. Instead, it’s places like Miami, FL and Houston, TX where 31% and 29% more people were working from home due to COVID-19 in August 2021 when compared to July 2021. Places like Omaha, NE (+15%) and St. Louis, MO (+13%) have also seen a double-digit increase in the share of remote workers month-to-month.


Sources and Methodology
The data on remote work due to COVID-19 by occupation group, occupation, state, and metropolitan area came from the Current Population Survey, as made available via IPUMS and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Illustrations by Rachel Tunstall

How to Move Now That States Are Reopening

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The COVID-19 #StayHome movement has postponed a lot of moves until things looked a little safer out there.

If this sounds like the boat you’re in, you’ll be happy to know moving services (with added precautions) are now being offered by lots of moving companies, given most states are now opening up with restrictions.

Still, just because states are lifting restrictions does not mean we’re automatically back to the old world we kind of, sort of remember.

Keep these things in mind when you decide to move during COVID-19.

First and foremost, remember how the virus spreads

CDC

The Centers for Disease Control tell us that the COVID-19 virus is transmitted in droplets coming from infected people’s mouths through the air.

The virus can also spread indirectly, originating in droplets of an infected individual before landing on surfaces that are then touched by another individual.

Yep, this means that staying safe on your move requires a two-point strategy:

  • Limit interpersonal contact
  • Keep surfaces decontaminated

Here’s how you address both when you move.

Strategically limit the number of people you are near throughout your move

The biggest decision you can make towards limiting contact is in how you’ll be moving.

Is your move small?

If you’re doing a small, local move, your best bet is a DIY Move. Moving your stuff little by little in a car obviously will keep exposure quite limited. (Hopefully, your interactions with a real estate agent, apartment manager, or anyone else stay digital or over the phone.)

What if you need to rent a rental truck for something bigger? The good news is that companies like Budget, U-Haul, and Penske have put together strong sanitary protocols for their trucks and new policies for their employees. Read about them here.

Is your move bigger than a 1-bedroom apartment?

You still have options for moving around as few people as possible, and most of them are pretty good.

furniture pads moving blanket

A couple hourly movers without a truck are a safer option. And they’re perfect for when you only need help with a few heavy things. Labor-only movers tend to be way more affordable too.

But for optimal safety, make sure to hire vetted movers. Moving companies through HireAHelper, which were already rated by quality and price, are now also weighted by the safety measures they adopt.

This means no matter what service you hire them for, your movers can provide safety equipment such as face coverings and gloves, and are also trained to adhere to social distancing guidelines to keep both you and their crew as safe as possible.

Moving containers are fantastic for moving safely after your state opens up. Most of the time, nobody needs to touch your things at all.

PODS

The way most moving container companies work is that they drive at least one big storage unit to your house, where you (or your movers) will fill it up. After that, someone comes and picks up your sealed container and takes it to either storage or your destination.

This means nobody necessarily has to touch any of your belongings, but your stuff still gets there! Moving containers are a pretty safe COVID moving option if they’re available to you.

Full-Service Moving companies are open for business too, though they vary in their safety protocol and inherently will require the most amount of people and foreign moving equipment in and out of your home. Do your research!

Make sure your estimates are done over the phone

Normally, this is something I discourage because even with the best and most honest of intentions, the probability for error is too large and there is a good chance the estimate you receive will be way off.

But tough times demand tough decisions, so work with your prospective movers to get as accurate an estimate as you can. More good news is that HireAHelper has a decade of experience figuring out how many movers (and how much time) you’ll need over the phone when you don’t know.

Now, I urge people to start packing early not just so they can finish a day or two before move day, but to allow those boxes to sit untouched for a day.

Remember to be extremely specific regarding your belongings! How much? How big? How heavy? Some movers even request virtual walk-throughs of your home to give you an estimate.

And if you do somehow end up with an in-person estimate, keep the number of individuals involved to a minimum. Ideally, it will be just you and a single moving company rep, with both of you keeping your distance.

Keep face masks on at all times

HireAHelper movers

Face masks are effective. Face masks work. Have them and use them, no matter what. Period.

Here are some pointers from the CDC regarding the use of masks.

What about gloves?

Gloves are a tricky subject. Movers will be touching every box and piece of furniture in your place, so whether they wear gloves or not may not make a difference since gloves transmit the virus just as bare hands do. Some will even say that gloves are useless if not counterproductive.

Gloves can also make it more difficult to carry heavy items, and can cause problems like wrist pain over the course of the move. Disposable gloves are preferable to gardening gloves, but it’s better to just practice abundant hand-washing.

Keep the sink running (literally)

Designate one running sink for the movers to wash their hands, and keep it warm. Keep soap, sanitizer, paper towels and a garbage can out in the open so nothing needs to be touched when throwing paper towels in the trash.

Moving companies through HireAHelper, which were already rated by quality and price, are now also weighted by the safety measures they adopt.

It may seem weird to keep the water running, but I promise you the hospital bill would be far higher.

The sink in the kitchen might seem the most logical choice, but assigning the sink in the bathroom might be best as your movers very well may need to use the rest room at some point.

Pick a designated surface or two for the movers to use

Every time another person touches something in your house, the chances of contamination go up.

So to minimize the chances, minimize how many things people touch by picking one or two main surfaces for boxes to sit on, and make sure it’s cleaned with disinfectant beforehand.

Do your own packing

It’s a lot easier to wipe down a bunch of cardboard boxes than it is to wipe down every dish, cup, plate and glass in your kitchen. And it saves time.

Use new boxes

New cardboard can be slightly pricier, but far safer than using used boxes right now. COVID can live on cardboard surfaces for up to a day. (You can use some of the money you’ll save by packing your own items on new boxes.)

I always urge people to start packing early to make sure they get it all done by move day. Now, I urge people to start packing early not just so they can finish a day or two before move day, but to allow those boxes to sit untouched for a day. Your movers aren’t the only ones who might be infected without even knowing it.

Conversely, this also means that at your new home, you should let your boxes sit for a day before unpacking them. If the outside of one box is contaminated, it is way too easy for all your things to end up hosting the virus.

Other things you can do to limit the spread

  • Prop doors open to avoid having to touch doorknobs and door handles
  • Keep windows open for circulation, a proven method for decreasing the chance of spread
  • No shaking hands, exchanging excessive paperwork, or sharing pens
  • Limit the number of people in your home. In other words, tell your friends you’ll say good-bye later
  • Move your stuff closer to the front door (without totally clogging up the area). The less time your movers have to spend in your home the better

Finally, talk to your landlord/real estate agent/movers if you feel sick

If you or someone you’ve been in contact with is showing symptoms of coronavirus infection, especially if you have a fever, cancel your move. Your movers will certainly understand.

There are no fees for COVID-related cancellation through HireAHelper. Read more about HireAHelper’s COVID policies.


Remember, reopening a state is like letting the dogs out of the car after a long drive. People will be out in huge numbers. Plan accordingly, so you can keep a safe distance from the masses.

Study: What The Great Recession Tells Us About COVID-19’s Potential Impact on the Moving Industry

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There’s an overwhelming uncertainty about the effect the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the US economy. This uncertainty is echoed in the moving industry, where according to our recent survey, over 80% of moving companies are worried about the future of their businesses (see Are Moving Companies Open? for updates on who’s still offering moving services). 

And no wonder: almost three-quarters (74%) of them have already seen moving jobs cancelled, while 72% noticed an overall decrease in business. 

Are they right to be worried long term? Just how much business does the moving industry stand to lose due to this pandemic? And how much revenue and how many jobs could be lost in this COVID-19 crisis? 

To answer these questions, we looked at how the moving industry fared through the most recent economic crisis in the US: the Great Recession of 2008-2009. 

We combined the data of the Great Recession with the most recent projections of unemployment and economic downturn to estimate the impact COVID-19 might have on the future of the moving industry.

Study Summary

Based on the combination of findings from an AMSA-commissioned study of the Great Recession and recent economic projections from Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg’s Survey of Economists, we estimate that the moving industry could lose between $1.5 and $2.5 billion dollars in revenue. That’s between 12.2% and 19.9% of its current revenue, based on America’s Moving and Storage Association’s (AMSA) estimates on how large the moving industry is today.

In addition, the current pandemic-related economic crisis could mean the following for the moving industry:

  • Closures of between 880 to 1,400 companies (12.7% to 20.7% of current estimates)
  • A loss of between 11,500 to 18,900 jobs (9.4% to 15.5% of the current workforce)
  • Payroll reduction between $300 to $490 million (8.3% to 13.6% of current industry payroll)

Based on the drop in the number of people moving during the last recession, the industry could see an estimated 6% to 9% reduction in demand for moving services in 2020.

Lessons for the moving industry from The Great Recession

Last time the US faced a financial crisis of this current magnitude was in 2008, when the subprime mortgage crisis and the failure of financial institutions plunged the country into a recession.

“Taking into account the toll the 2008-2009 crisis took on the moving industry in terms of revenue, number of establishments, jobs, and payroll, based on current economic projections, the toll is likely to be similar this time around.”

According to a related 2012 study of the moving industry in the years of the Great Recession (which we note was commissioned by the American Moving & Storage Association), it took until 2011 for the industry to recover – that’s about four years. “Recovery” as operationalized by this study means “a return to growth in revenue, employment, number of companies in the industry”.

HireAHelper

Based on AMSA’s study, at the peak of the recession (i.e., 2008-2009), our key metrics fell by:

  • Revenue: -16.5%
  • Establishments: -17.2%
  • Employment: -12.8%
  • Payroll: -11.3%

Within the same period, the US recorded a peak unemployment rate of 9.5% and a 4.2% drop in GDP, signaling an extremely difficult time for the economy and the country.

How these industry-specific and broader metrics behaved during the recession of 2008-2009 allows us to estimate what the COVID-19 pandemic may cost the moving industry in 2020. 

Predicting the unpredictable about the 2020 crises and beyond

To assess the impact of the COVID crisis on the moving industry, we started with the same two metrics we measured for the Great Recession: change in the GDP and unemployment rate

Here are the drops in GDP and peak unemployment rates for the Great Recession, followed by Goldman Sachs and Boomberg’s estimates for the COVID-19 pandemic.

HireAHelper

Unlike with the Great Recession, these 2020 figures are limited to three months. (And while some projections are wrong more often than not, that’s all we have to go on so far.)

We took our projections on these metrics from two reputable sources: Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg’s survey of economists. While both predict an approximate 3.5% decline in GDP in 2020, compared to 2019, Goldman Sachs is a lot more optimistic than Bloomberg’s panel when it comes to the unemployment metric.

Armed with these figures, we aimed to answer the following question:

If during the Great Recession the moving industry lost 16.5% of its revenue, what can we expect based on the projections for COVID-related economic crisis?

Taking into account the toll the 2008-2009 crisis took on the moving industry in terms of revenue, number of establishments, jobs, and payroll, based on current economic projections, the toll is likely to be similar this time around.

What the moving industry could see going forward. (HireAHelper)

Beyond the immediate impact, a worrying trend

If the Great Recession is any indication, it could be up to four years before the moving industry rebounds to its previous rates. 

The number of people moving in the US every year has been on a steady decline since the mid-90s.31.4 million people moved in 2019 –  almost 1 million fewer than the year before.

Top reasons for moving last year were:

  • New or better home: 17.0%
  • New job or job transfer: 12.1%
  • Establish own household: 11.4%

The top reasons for moving in 2019, based on our study of over 25,000 moves in 2019, were all for reasons that will be heavily impacted by a crashed economy. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where forces behind these reasons (e.g., job creation, the housing market) all experience a quick recovery. Last time we were in a recession, the number of people moving dropped almost 10% year-over-year.

Based on current economic projections, we estimate the number of people moving could be between 6% and 9% lower in 2020 than the year before. 

The moving industry is hoping for the best, preparing for the worst

Comparing the consequences COVID-19 pandemic will have on the economy to the recession of 2008-2009 is, of course, speculative. And whereas the finance industry seems to be divided over how strongly the coronavirus pandemic will affect the nation’s economy, they seem to agree on one thing: much like the impact of the Great Recession, the impact of COVID-19 will be negative.

Still, at the moment, it’s impossible to rule out either “rapid recovery” or the “deep recession” scenarios. A quick recovery is exactly what some companies in the industry are hoping for. 

Ben Cross of University Moving and Storage Co, an agent of the North American Van Lines tells us, “April is trending about 60% down for our corporate business, but we expect that to come back in June.”

He adds, however, that the comeback depends on “whether 100% of the moves that didn’t happen in March, April and May end up moving at all”.

Like many other questions, this one will be answered when the true effect COVID-19 has on the economy, including house sales and jobs creation which are both big drivers of people’s moves in the United States, is revealed.

Until such time, we can anticipate the COVID-19 to have an impact similar to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, while holding out hope it won’t be as profound this time around.

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