2023 Study: 3 Million Moves Driven by Extreme Weather Events Last Year

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Key Insights

  • 3 million Americans were displaced by a natural disaster at some point in the last year
  • 530,000 (or 18% of those 3 million) still haven’t returned home after being displaced
  • 25% of moves forced by natural disasters are people destined for a different state
  • Hurricanes and storms were responsible for 51% of all the disaster-related moves in 2022
  • Fires are most likely to result in long-term or permanent displacement, as 45% of those displaced by fires in 2023 never returned home

In this study, HireAHelper takes a close look at moves forced by natural disasters in the United States.

Using the most recent data from the Census Bureau’s large-scale Household Pulse Survey and Current Population Survey, we focused on the number of disaster-forced moves over time, their typical destinations, as well as the types of disasters forcing most Americans out of their homes.


natural disaster movesDisplaced or Moved Permanently: Counting the Number of Americans Fleeing Natural Disasters

Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey puts the number of Americans displaced by a natural disaster at 3 million.

This figure made national news earlier this year and represents the number of Americans who self-reported as being displaced from their home because of a natural disaster at some point in the past year.

3 million is a large number, but it’s worth noting that most displaced moves are temporary. According to the same survey data, 33% of those Americans who have been forced to leave their home due to a natural disaster at some point in the past 12 months return home within just a week.  

A further 31% go back home within a month and 19% return after six months to a year away from their usual residence.

That said, as of May 2023, 18% of Americans displaced by a natural disaster still haven’t returned home after 12 months. This is equivalent to 533,000 people needing to figure out life in a new place after their previous living arrangement became untenable.  

If we look at more permanent moves, however, the number of people who moved due to a natural disaster in 2022 is around 88,000. This figure comes from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey which targets “…individuals who have usual residences elsewhere,” meaning it reflects the number of people who moved permanently.

The most likely reason for the discrepancy between the number of permanent movies and the number of those still home after 12 months is timing. Current Population Survey data was released in late 2022 and could have been too early to reflect the full impact of disasters such as Hurricane Ian. In turn, Household Pulse Survey from April-May 2023 would already include people who have been displaced by extreme weather events in late 2022 and early this year.


States With the Most Americans Affected

One state stands out in terms of how many of its residents have been forced to flee their homes because of a natural disaster: Louisiana

7.5% of people once residing in Louisiana had to, even if temporarily, leave their homes in the wake of a cataclysm in the past year — that’s one in 13 people. 

 

“Not only is Texas by far the most common destination for moves made by those fleeing a natural disaster, but it’s also the state with the highest number of disaster refugees relative to the local population (58 per 10,000).”

 

Why? Even though there weren’t any singular stand-out disasters here in the past year, parts of the state are still recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Laura in 2020 and Hurricane Ida in 2021.

The second most affected state is Florida, where 5.6% of residents found themselves displaced at one point or another in the past 12 months. And while Louisiana hasn’t experienced a major cataclysm last year, Florida had Hurricane Ian to contend with, which was one of the worst hurricanes in U.S. history.

Kentucky (2.6%), Alaska (2.5%), Michigan (2.2%), and New Mexico (2%) are the only other states where the share of those displaced by disasters rose above 2%. Everywhere else, the percentage of residents who had to leave their homes due to a natural disaster was reportedly under 2% of residents.


Wind and Fire: Disasters that Displace the Most Americans

Between hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes, what extreme weather events cause the greatest number of Americans to uproot their life and move?

 

“7.5% of people once residing in Louisiana had to, even if temporarily, leave their homes in the wake of a cataclysm in the past year — that’s one in 13 people.”

 

In absolute terms, it’s by far hurricanes that account for the lion’s share of displacements — 41%. Together with tornadoes, they are responsible for over half (51%) of all disaster-related moves in the United States.

Meanwhile, wildfires are responsible for 23% of all displaced moves in the past year, while floods account for 26% of such moves, depending on the source.

Events such as earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic activity also contribute to the displacement of people, though at smaller scales.


Impacts Per Type of Disaster

Despite hurricanes causing most of the displaced moves in the United States, their impact tends to be short-term. The share of those displaced by hurricanes that return home within a month is 67% and only 10% are displaced for more than a year.

On the other hand, 45% of those who escaped wildfires can’t return home even after a year of being forced out. Tornadoes have the second displacement effect with a quarter (24%) of those who had to move out because of a tornado still aren’t home after 12 months away.


Location-Based Insights:

  • Louisiana (7%) and Florida (5.6%) have the highest proportion of people displaced by a natural disaster in the last 12 months
  • Texas is the destination for 37% of all disaster-driven interstate moves since 2005
  • Texas (58), Tennessee (51), and Mississippi (48) are the most welcoming states, with the highest ratio of disaster refugees per 10,000 people
  • New York (2.7), Kentucky (2.8), and New Jersey (3) have the fewest incoming displaced moves per 10,000 residents

How Far and Where To: Top Destinations of Displaced Moves

Compared to regular moves for work or family reasons, permanent moves caused by a natural disaster tend to go a bit farther, or, at least historically. 

Since 2006, two-thirds (65%) of Americans who move tend to stay within the same county, compared to just over half (55%) of those displaced by natural disasters stay nearby.

Conversely, 25% of those who moved due to a natural disaster went to a different state, compared to 15% of non-disaster-related moves, figures from the Current Population Survey show. 

It’s these longer-distance moves of those displaced by an extreme weather event that reveal an interesting pattern.

Since 2006, 37% of Americans who had to resettle outside their state as a result of a natural disaster went to one state – Texas. 

Not only is Texas by far the most common destination for moves made by those fleeing a natural disaster, but it’s also the state with the highest number of disaster refugees relative to the local population (58 per 10,000).

Tennessee (51) and Mississippi (48) follow as the second and third states by the number of domestic disaster refugees per 10,000 local residents.

Other states that have welcomed a significant number of displaced Americans include the three Midwestern states of Missouri (30), Wisconsin (28), and Michigan (26). Rounding off the top 10 are Arkansas and Georgia — both with 24 resettled Americans per 10,000 local residents since 2006.

State Disaster Moves per 10,000 residents State Disaster Moves per 10,000 residents
Texas 58.2 New York 2.7
Tennessee 50.9 Kentucky 2.8
Mississippi 47.7 New Jersey 3.0
Wyoming 35.0 Connecticut 3.0
Missouri 30.1 California 3.2
Wisconsin 27.7 Indiana 5.1
Michigan 25.9 Nebraska 5.6
Oregon 25.5 West Virginia 5.9
Arkansas 24.4 Alaska 6.4
Georgia 23.9 Ohio 6.5

New York (2.7 per 10,000 people) and Kentucky (2.8) are the states with the lowest intake of displaced Americans compared to the local population, followed by New Jersey (3), Connecticut (3), and California (3.2), where the share of disaster-displaced new residents to the local population is around 3 per 10,000.

To see how many Americans displaced by natural disasters each state welcomed, check out our interactive map.


Tides of Change: Moves Forced by Disasters Over Time

The number of Americans who moved due to a natural disaster hasn’t reached the level of Hurricane Katrina since then. That storm was a cataclysm that claimed over 1,000 lives,  forced over 1 million people out of their homes in late August 2005, and is generally considered one of the costliest cataclysms in U.S. history.  

But there have been some spikes of displacements of over 100,000 that have coincided with U.S. natural disasters, such as Hurricane Ike in 2008, Hurricane Florence in 2018, and the California Wildfires of 2019.

The Current Population Survey data reflect more permanent moves, meaning the true number of people who were forced to move temporarily due to various cataclysms is likely a lot higher. 

Fortunately, most Americans who had to flee their home due to a natural disaster eventually return home.


Sources and Methodology
Figures on the number of Americans that have been displaced by a natural disaster in the past 12 months, their place of residence, how long they were away from their homes, and what event caused them to leave their homes were all taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey.
Statistics on the number of Americans who were forced to relocate due to natural disasters over time, the length of their moves, and their destinations were taken from U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (as available via IPUMS.)
U.S. Census Bureau’s state population estimates were used to calculate how many natural disaster refugees each state accepted per 10,000 residents.
Illustrations by Jiaqi Zhou

Every Last Thing You Should Know About Driving Your Moving Truck in the Fall

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Moving in the fall is easier on the schedule, but harder on basically everything else. As such, we offer the following morsels of random fall knowledge. Well actually, it’s knowledge that can make the difference between a safe drive and an accident. Knowing this stuff can prevent disaster, making your off-season move an uneventful success. Remember…

Keep these things on hand when you move during the fall

A good place to start is a list of the bits and pieces to have on hand during cold weather driving and moving:

  • Flashlight
  • Blankets
  • Ice scraper
  • Charged cell phone
  • Emergency flares
  • (Working) spare tire
  • Tools to apply spare tires
  • Salt or sand
  • Shovel
  • Cash

A flashlight, blankets and an ice scraper are obvious items. Also have a charged-up cell phone, emergency flares, a (working) spare tire and all the necessary tools and skills to put that spare on. Salt or sand can get you out of a slippery spot, and a shovel can get you out of a deep and powdery one. Food, drink and cash are good to have too.

The fall is when deer mate

moving in the fall

Research by the Pennsylvania Game Commission found that the “rut” – the mating season for deer – occurs between mid-October and mid-December, with the peak coming in mid-November. This means as autumn creeps toward winter, the bucks are chasing the does all over the forest – and all over the road. At dusk or dawn is when they are generally most active.

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety tells us that around 1.5 million deer-vehicle crashes occur annually on U.S. roads, most of them occurring during this annual rut. While a rental moving truck might do more damage to a deer than vice versa, losing control of your vehicle after hitting or avoiding a deer, then plowing into a stationary object and/or overturning is a common and very real danger. Be on the lookout for deer and other nocturnal critters, particularly along rural roads, and while driving through forested areas.

The optimal air pressure for your tires is NOT what’s molded into your tires’ sidewalls

moving in the fall

That psi figure on your Michelins is the maximum air pressure they are designed to handle, not what they should be inflated to. For that information, check the decal on the door jamb of your vehicle’s driver side door or the specs laid out in your vehicle’s owner’s manual. Then get your tires checked.

Why is this a problem? Over-inflated tires have less contact surface with the road, which is bad news for a loaded box truck on wet, potentially icy pavement. Excess air pressure also increases your chances of having a blowout. This is in addition to the harsh, uncomfortable ride that stiff, over-inflated tires provide.

On the flip side, under-inflated tires can lower steering precision and cornering stability, things you don’t want to lose in any conditions, let alone on a slippery road. Interestingly, low air pressure, just like high air pressure, can heighten the possibility of a blowout. In addition, keep in mind that cooler temperatures can further decrease air pressure, so check your tires as the weather turns colder.

Be careful where you park (Also, what’s a catalytic converter?) 

moving in the fall

Did you know if your catalytic converter is clogged or being over-worked, it can get hotter than 1,600 degrees? (A catalytic converter, by the way, is a wonderful bit of chemistry and science that converts toxic by-products of engine combustion into less harmful gases.) Catalytic converters on your car are built and installed with a heat shield, but at those temps, there can still be more than enough heat emanating from the bottom of your vehicle to set a pile of leaves smoking. A moving truck sits relatively high off the ground, so the converter – located along the exhaust pipe between the engine and the muffler – may not pose as big a threat to a pile of leaves as the one on your car.

Either way, all this to say that parking on a pile of leaves is never a good idea. Aside from the potential for fire, leaf piles can hide things like potholes, debris and playful little children.

Sticking with the subject of leaves, never forget that they don’t have to be in a pile to be a hazard. Wet leaves can make for a mighty slick surface that can turn icy and even more slippery during the chilly late-year night. Dry, new-fallen leaves can hide puddles and ice patches as well.

Black ice is sneaky and terrible

moving in the fall

There’s a special term for water that freezes without air bubbles getting trapped inside; It’s called black ice. (Okay, so maybe you’ve heard of it.) Black ice, of course, is not actually black, but that absence of air bubbles combined with our vantage point as we roll along the pavement makes it appear black. It also looks like nothing more than a wet spot on the road, which is what makes it so innocuous, and therefore extremely dangerous.

Black ice is able to form on road surfaces when there is little to no traffic to disrupt the freezing process. Early morning, then, is when the danger is particularly prevalent. Be alert on those quiet country roads as well!

Consider what you wipe condensation off with

Cloth diapers are better than disposable ones. I’m talking, of course, about clearing the condensation off the inside of your windshield. Particularly when you combine the cool and moist fall weather with a malfunctioning rental truck defroster, having a cotton rag or an old t-shirt (or a throwback from the pre-Pamper days) can help you keep your windshield clean and your visibility high. In a pinch, wiping your windshield with your hand is a temporary fix during the day. But at night, the smears your skin leaves behind creates a nasty situation when the headlights from oncoming cars begin to shine through.

Worried about glare? Driving west in the morning – or east in the evening – will not help

moving in the fall

This is a consideration all throughout the year, but during the shorter days of the year, the sun can still be on the rise while we head out in the morning and can start sinking long before it’s time to call it a day. And while driving straight into the sun is no fun, facing away from it doesn’t completely save us either.

That’s because the sudden glare in the side view mirror as we turn can be blinding and can affect our vision even when that glare is gone. A bright sun behind us can also make it difficult to see what color that traffic signal is in front of us, let alone see if it’s changing. Also consider that when the sun is behind you, it’s directly in front of everybody going the other way!

Even when the sun is higher in the sky, any snow on the ground can produce a headache-inducing glare. Simply put? Those Ray-Bans aren’t just for summer.

Freezing fog is a real thing

moving in the fall

No, it’s not the latest trend in teenage mischief. Freezing fog, as the NOAA puts it, is made of “tiny, super-cooled liquid water droplets (that) can freeze instantly on exposed surfaces (and) can cause black ice to form on roadways.” So if a thick fog weren’t tough enough to drive in, there’s also the potential for black ice forming on the road surface when it’s cold enough.

In any event, reduced visibility from fog demands lower speeds and low headlights (not high beams, which cause more glare than visibility). And since fog is a result of the mixture of moisture and cool air, it is most prevalent at dawn in the colder months, particularly in hilly or mountainous terrain.

Even if you think visibility is not all that bad, remember that your headlights do more than just help you see the road. They also help others see you. And keep in mind that when you turn on your headlights, your tail lights come on too, which can keep speedy and inattentive drivers from slamming into you from behind.

If you don’t know all the specifics – of how catalytic converters work, how black ice forms, or how a doe chooses her buck – that’s quite all right. Just remember that the first can be hot, the second can be deceptive, and those deer can come out of nowhere fast. So make sure you’re prepared for them, and everything else these cooler, shorter days throw at us during your chilly move.

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